Private life insurers are expected to deliver decent growth in the first quarter of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24) on the back of stronger group business performance and easing supply-side constraints on individual protection. Life Insurance Corporation (LIC), though, is likely to see a decline. Healthy 12 per cent year-on-year (YoY) retail annual premium equivalent (APE) growth for private players, coupled with 11 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline in LIC, will pull retail APE growth to a mere 3 per cent YoY in June 2023.
Analysts seem to be generally pessimistic about Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL). Out of 15 brokerages with recommendations since May this year, two have 'buy' while five have 'sell' and eight have 'underweight'/'reduce'/'underperform'/'hold' recommendations. The average target price of the public sector undertaking (PSU) is Rs 61. However, the stock has been consistently hitting new highs, which indicates that there is some kind of valuation mismatch.
A strong business update for the April-June quarter of the 2023-24 financial year Q1FY24 has led to a big jump of over 7 per cent in the share price of Bajaj Finance on Tuesday (July 4). The non-banking financial company's (NBFC's) new loan book grew 34 per cent with 9.9 million new loans booked in Q1FY24 from 7.2 million loans booked in Q1FY23. The company's total customer franchise rose to 72.98 million (as on June 30, 2023), compared to 60.30 million year-on-year (YoY) with the highest-ever quarterly increase of 3.84 million in Q1FY24. Assets under management (AUM) grew by 32 per cent to about Rs. 270,050 crore in Q1FY24 from Rs. 204,018 crore in Q1FY23.
Investors are showing some interest in the downstream energy cycle. Refiners and marketers, especially the public sector (PSU) oil marketing companies (OMCs) could see a revival of marketing margins. Lower crude oil and gas prices may also improve margins in industries like paints, logistics, synthetic fabrics, plastics, and fertilisers. In the medium-term, however, there could be a supply overhang affecting OMCs as new refining capacities are scheduled to be commissioned, especially in China, and this may lead to a drop in the refining margins as capacity would be surplus to demand until and unless there's a pick-up in global growth.
Indices across Indian equity markets have edged towards new record highs before undergoing a small correction in the past few sessions. The National Stock Exchange Nifty has gained 20 per cent in the past year; mid-caps (up 33 per cent), small-caps (up 31 per cent), and micro-caps (up 44 per cent) have done better. Several factors have precipitated this rally.
Eicher Motors is a leader in the premium motorcycle segment, where it holds market share of over 85 per cent under the Royal Enfield (RE) brand. The company's joint venture VE Commercial Vehicles (VECV) with Volvo, where it holds 54.5 per cent stake, gives it a strong footing in commercial vehicles (CVs). The company had good results in FY23 and it has a strong balance sheet and good operating margins.
Banks enjoyed an expansion in Net Interest Margins (or NIMs) as well as in credit demand through the 2022-23 financial year (FY23). The credit expansion was because economic growth continued to recover from the Covid-19 years, and indeed, second half GDP growth surprised on the upside. The NIM expansion was because banks raised lending rates immediately (in many cases automatically due to floaters) as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked policy rates, and only started raising deposit rates late into the fiscal.
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sun Pharma) reported a turnaround in the January-March quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23), declaring a profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 1,984 crore versus a loss of Rs 2,277 crore in Q4FY22. However, that loss in FY22 was due to several exceptional one-time items -- with Rs 3,723.15 crore allocated to settlement of lawsuits in the US and other Exceptional Items adding up to Rs 3,935.75 crore. Adjusted for exceptional items, PAT in Q4FY22 amounts to Rs 2,155 crore, which is a year-on-year (YoY) growth of about 36 per cent.
Cement companies witnessed speculative support from investors through FY23 amid hopes of a rebound. After capex announcements in the FY24 Budget, there was further interest due to expectations that government expenditure would boost earnings, besides a generic macro-recovery. Cement earnings were under pressure in FY22 and FY23 due to high raw material and fuel costs; muted demand prevented them passing on the higher cost.
There's a straightforward relationship between economic activity and power consumption. If economic activity increases, so does power consumption. Since the latest GDP (gross domestic product) data indicates India's growth rates exceeded expectations in the second half if the 2022-23 financial year (H2FY23) and GDP estimates of FY24 are strong, we would expect power consumption to rise as indeed it has. There is also a direct relationship between power consumption and National Thermal Power Corporation or NTPC's results since the public sector undertaking (PSU) is the largest power generator in India.
The FMCG sector is generally considered to be a safe haven during difficult times as people never stop buying soap and toothpaste. However, weak rural and semi-urban demand has been a factor since the lockdowns of 2020-21 while rising inflation has also impacted margins. While the FMCG majors have survived on the basis of price hikes and good management practices, they have seen growth slowdowns and experienced margins being squeezed as raw materials and transport costs rose. The FMCG sector witnessed positive volume growth in the fourth quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) after five consecutive quarters of decline, and the rebound in demand was led by urban markets.
The automobile sector has started seeing volume growth, the crucial economy segment included. Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) could be a big beneficiary as the country's largest passenger vehicle (PV) maker has seen several favourable developments including volume recovery. Demand for its new sports utility vehicles (SUVs) appears to be good, and the company has 4 lakh outstanding orders by April 2023, (up from 3.6 lakhs in January 2023). Siam (Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers) estimates that passenger vehicle demand would grow by 5-7 per cent in the 2023-24 financial year (FY24) and MSIL is likely to beat the market growth.
Info Edge (India) reported a good fourth quarter for the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) given depressed conditions in the Key IT segment. The billing growth of 13.7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in recruitment was well ahead of market expectations. There was solid growth in realisations (up 5.5 per cent) as well as unique customers (up 7.7 per cent).
ITC's results for the January-March quarter (Q4) were strong, with robust growth in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) segment and a good performance in hospitality. The tobacco division's performance was on expected lines, with double-digit volume growth, helped by reclaiming of market share from the smuggled trade. There was 60 per cent growth in non-cigarette earnings before interest and tax (Ebit), despite a relatively weak performance in paperboards.
Bharti Airtel delivered encouraging results for the January-March quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) as telecom and associated services moved into the 5G zone. In India, Airtel's mobile Q4 revenue and Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) were Rs 19,550 crore (up 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter or QoQ) and Rs 10,530 crore (up 1.1 per cent QoQ), respectively. The Ebitda margin was flat at 52.2 per cent.
Encouraging results for the fourth quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) have led to a big surge in the share price of DLF. The realty major closed FY23 with Rs 15,000 crore (up 107 per cent year-on-year or YoY) of pre-sales, leading to cash generation of Rs 2,500 crore (up 14 per cent YoY) and reduced net debt by Rs 1,960 crore YoY. The launch of The Arbour project in Q4FY23 alone drove sales of Rs 8,000 crore in the quarter.
Novelis' results for the January-March quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) disappointed investors and as a result, the share price of Hindalco (Novelis is a 100 per cent subsidiary of Hindalco) has slid. The non-ferrous metals major is suffering from the impact of a down-cycle in aluminium and copper, as well as the slowdown imposed in Europe by the Russia-Ukraine war. Prospects for the firm look gloomy, at least for the first half (H1) of FY24.
Larsen & Toubro (L&T) disappointed the Street with its results for the January-March quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) due to weaker core engineering & construction (E&C) segment performance by the engineering giant.' Although core E&C order inflows for FY23 rose 19 per cent year-on-year (YoY), with orders from railways, metals and water sectors, margins in the infrastructure segment crashed to all-time low. Revenue at Rs 58,300 crore was up 10 per cent YoY but somewhat below expectations.
Encouraging results for PayTM (One97 Communications) for the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) have led to a surge in the company's stock price, gaining nearly 5 per cent during Monday's trade. PayTM reported Q4FY23 revenues at Rs 2,330 crore, up 51 per cent on year-on-year (YoY) basis (13.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter or QoQ), led by monthly transaction user (MTU) growth of 27 per cent and average revenue per user or ARPU growth of 19 per cent YoY. MTU is defined as users with at least one transaction/month.
UltraTech Cement's results for the fourth quarter results of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) were broadly in line with the Street estimates. The consolidated revenue, operating profit and net profit stood at Rs 18,700 crore, Rs 3,300 crore and Rs 1,670 crore, respectively, which were up 18 per cent, 8 per cent and 13 per cent YoY, respectively.
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